[Beowulf] Moores Law is dying
richard.walsh at comcast.net
richard.walsh at comcast.net
Wed Apr 8 15:10:35 PDT 2009
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ken Schuster" <ken at kschuster.org>
To: beowulf at beowulf.org
Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2009 2:29:17 PM GMT -05:00 US/Canada Eastern
Subject: [Beowulf] Moores Law is dying
>An IBM researcher says Moore's Law is running out of gas. IB M Fellow Carl Anderson, who
>oversees physical design and tools in its server division, predicted the end of continued exponential
>scaling down of the size and cost of semiconductors:
>"There was exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s; there was exponential
>growth in the automobile industry in the 1930s and 1940s; and there was exponential growth
>in the performance of aircraft until [test pilots reached] the speed of sound. But eventually
>exponential growth always comes to an end," said Anderson.
Mmm ... he may be right, but I do not like his historical references which seem
to conflate engineering and economics. Better to refer to the improvement in
magnets or something similar. But, I like the speed of sound reference because
it suggests that there is a Moore's Law barrier to be broken. There is a lot of
talk about "walls" these days ... the memory wall, the power wall, ... but we with
respect compute power we have a ways to go before we reach the Bremermann Limit.
rbw
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