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<title>Reiner Hartenstein</title>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Later, much later..<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">I don’t see electricity costs rising by even an order of magnitude over the next few decades. It’s primarily driven by the energy cost to generate the electricity..<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Crude oil is particularly volatile, and it’s only gone up to $100/bbl vs about $20/bbl (inflation adjutsted) since 1945. There have been some spikes (dec.
1979), but still , less than one order of magnitude.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Coal prices are much less volatile. ($36/ton in 1949 to $32/ton in 2011, dipping as low as $19/ton in the early 2000s, and $24/ton in 1960s) (inflation adjusted).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Recent advances in natural gas production have made it economic to produce an enormous amount of gas, which has always been cheap. Oil is most rare: the organic
matter has to have been at just the right temperature (about that of hot coffee) for long enough, and it has to be in a kind of rock that is porous enough to allow it to flow, and in a geology that allows it to be trapped (anticlines, faults, salt domes) for
extraction. Coal is quite common (too hot or cold and you still get coal, just of different grades), but still requires some heat/pressure. Some coal is little more than dense dry peat (lignite, braunkohle)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Methane is everywhere. It’s what pretty much all organic matter turns into if it doesn’t turn into coal or oil. Until the last 20 years or so, it was either
an inconvenience (pressurizing a dry hole when looking for oil, making coal mines hazardous, causing department store basements to explode in Los Angeles), or a convenience (pressurizing the oil so you don’t need to pump it) or it was in a formation that isn’t
porous enough to get decent flow rates. These days, though, there’s a lot of ways to get it out of the ground, there’s more infrastructure to move it around, and it’s a heck of a lot better fuel than just about anything for something on land (no problems
with heavy metals, not too much problem with sulfur). I was surprised recently to see that that natural gas is about to overtake coal as the leading source of electricity in the US (1.2 PWh for gas, 1.5 PWh for coal out of about 4PWh total)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Since people are running PFLOPS today.. and can afford it, I can’t see an ExaFLOPS being out of the question.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Jim Lux<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext"> beowulf-bounces@beowulf.org [mailto:beowulf-bounces@beowulf.org]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Reiner Hartenstein<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, April 03, 2013 6:42 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> beowulf@beowulf.org<br>
<b>Subject:</b> [Beowulf] Unaffordable Petascale ?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">When will we have to shut down supercomputers<br>
because of unaffordable electricity cost?<br>
Early next decade ? or later? or earlier ?</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p style="margin:0in;margin-bottom:.0001pt"><span style="font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"">Best regards,<br>
Reiner Hartenstein</span><o:p></o:p></p>
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