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<P><SPAN class=458280616-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#000080 size=2>Almost
exactly four years ago Gordon Moore himself predicted his own law's
demise.</FONT></SPAN>
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size=2></FONT></SPAN>
<P><SPAN class=458280616-14042009><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><FONT
color=#000080>Moore said: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials
is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens."</FONT></FONT></SPAN>
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<FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B> beowulf-bounces@beowulf.org
[mailto:beowulf-bounces@beowulf.org] <B>On Behalf Of
</B>richard.walsh@comcast.net<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 08, 2009 6:11
PM<BR><B>To:</B> beowulf@beowulf.org<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [Beowulf] Moores Law
is dying<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: #000000; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><BR><FONT
face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">----- Original Message
-----<BR>From: "Ken Schuster" <ken@kschuster.org><BR>To:
beowulf@beowulf.org<BR>Sent: Wednesday, April 8, 2009 2:29:17 PM GMT -05:00
US/Canada Eastern<BR>Subject: [Beowulf] Moores Law is dying<BR><BR></FONT>
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<DIV><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">>An IBM
researcher says Moore's Law is running out of gas. IB</FONT><FONT
face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">M Fellow Carl Anderson,
who</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">>oversees
physical design and tools in its server division, predicted the end of
</FONT><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">continued
exponential</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">>scaling down
of the size and cost of semiconductors: </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">>"There was
exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s; there was
exponential</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">>growth in
the automobile industry in the 1930s and 1940s; and there was exponential
growth</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">>in the
performance of aircraft until [test pilots reached] the speed of sound.
But eventually</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="times new roman, new york, times, serif">>exponential
growth always comes to an end," said Anderson. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">Mmm ... he may be right, but I do not
like his historical references which seem</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">to conflate engineering and
economics. Better to refer to the improvement in</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">magnets or something similar. But,
I like the speed of sound reference because</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">it suggests that there is a Moore's Law
barrier to be broken. There is a lot of</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">talk about "walls" these days ... the
memory wall, the power wall, ... but we with</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman">respect compute power we have a ways to
go before we reach the Bremermann Limit.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Times New Roman"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT
face="Times New Roman">rbw</FONT></DIV></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><BR></DIV></BODY></HTML>