[Beowulf] Moores Law is dying
sdm900 at gmail.com
Thu Apr 9 09:55:45 PDT 2009
its not a law, it was an observation. Like with most observations, it
isn't meant to be definitive or extrapolated too far.
I hate the term "moores law" and the expectation that it holds and one
day might be broken.
Dr Stuart Midgley
sdm900 at gmail.com
On 09/04/2009, at 2:29 AM, Ken Schuster wrote:
> "An IBM researcher says Moore's Law is running out of gas.
> IBM Fellow Carl Anderson, who oversees physical design and tools in
> its server division, predicted the end of continued exponential
> scaling down of the size and cost of semiconductors...
> "There was exponential growth in the railroad industry in the 1800s;
> there was exponential growth in the automobile industry in the 1930s
> and 1940s; and there was exponential growth in the performance of
> aircraft until [test pilots reached] the speed of sound. But
> eventually exponential growth always comes to an end," said Anderson.
> A generation or two of continued exponential growth will likely
> continue only for leading-edge chips such as multicore
> microprocessors, but more designers are finding that everyday
> applications do not require the latest physical designs, Anderson
> Consequently, Moore's Law--halving of the dimensions and doubling of
> speed of chips every 18 months--will run out of steam very soon.
> Only a few high-end chip makers today can even afford the exorbitant
> cost of next-generation research and design, much less the fabs to
> build them.
> Anderson cited three next-generation technologies that were still on
> the fast track for exponential growth: optical interconnects, 3-D
> chips and accelerator-based processing. He predicted that rack-to-
> rack optical interconnects will become commonplace, with chip-to-
> chip optical connections on the same board coming soon. But Anderson
> said on-chip optical signaling remains years away. He also predicted
> that stacked DRAM dies would be the first to go 3-D.
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